Last year, the global economic outlook was marked by a sharp escalation of geopolitical uncertainty and major policy shocks. In April, the US administration under President Trump abruptly announced sweeping tariffs, centred on a 10% baseline levy on imports, with even higher rates on selected countries. This represented a massive negative shock for trade, as the US accounts for 26% of the global economy, and was previously predominantly open to trade with an average tariff rate of less than 2%.




























